Energy Analysis
PRAS: Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite

PRAS: Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite

NREL's Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) provides an open-source, research-oriented collection of tools for analyzing the resource adequacy of bulk power systems.

Resource adequacy describes a power system's ability to meet demand for electricity. PRAS simulates power system operations under a range of operating conditions to study the risk of failing to meet demand—due to a lack of electricity supply or deliverability— and identify the time periods and regions in which that risk occurs.

PRAS performs low-fidelity, high-speed simulations of multi-region power system operations, considering hundreds of thousands of years of unplanned resource outages to quantify the risk and potential nature of energy supply shortfalls in probabilistic terms. PRAS can be used to calculate the capacity credit of variable and energy-limited resources such as wind, solar, and storage and may be complemented with higher-fidelity, deterministic production cost modeling for more detailed operational insights. The PRAS ecosystem includes integrations with other NREL tools, including the Regional Energy Deployment System, the Resource Planning Model, and the Scalable Integrated Infrastructure Planning model.

Energy shortfall risk distribution by region, season, and time of day, for a contrived future North American power system as modeled using PRAS.

Download Model from GitHub

The GitHub repository includes the PRAS model code, instructions, and more.

Documentation

Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) v0.6 Model Documentation (2021)

Example Analysis

As part of two studies, PRAS modeled the 7-year average capacity factor and the estimated capacity credit for 20-km x 20-km grids in the United States. Higher capacity credits indicate a higher contribution of wind's capacity to the total power system. Download data.